Sunday, July 27, 2014

Best US Stocks To Own Right Now

The North Sea has been one of the few bright spots, if we can call it that, for offshore drillers this year, as dayrates have been dropping around the world as rigs come off contract. But Credit Suisse expects the region to get hit come 2015–and expose Rowan (RDC), Seadrill (SDRL), Transocean (RIG) and Diamond Offshore (DO) to more pain.

Reuters

Credit Suisse analyst�Gregory Lewis and team explain why now is the time to start worrying about the North Sea:

Robust CAPEX spending the last few years looks to be giving way to more cost conscious customers. Over the last two years rig rental CAPEX has grown at an annual clip of ~15% – in line with the projected rig rental CAPEX spend of 14-15% this year (the reason why North Sea is holding up better than most basins). CAPEX growth has been driven by the top ten players in the basin (Statoil, BP, Total, Conoco, Shell, Rig Management Norway, Lundin, Maersk, GDF Suez and Nexen) which have grown spend ~17% annually over the last five years. This year already has 14% rig rental CAPEX growth in the books which should trend higher over the next few months. However, Statoil (800 lb gorilla in the North Sea) rig rental CAPEX looks to be flattish this year and BP and Shell are set to spend less in the North Sea this year. 2014 is not the problem but more rigs in the region combined with slowing CAPEX points to a lot of question marks in 2015.

Top 5 Consumer Service Stocks To Watch For 2015: PowerShares International Dividend Achievers Portfolio (PID)

PowerShares International Dividend Achievers Portfolio (the Fund) seeks to replicate, before fees and expenses, the International Dividend Achievers Index (the Index). The Fund invests in sectors, including financials, utilities, consumer staples, commercial banks, insurance, utilities and information technology. PowerShares Capital Management LLC is the adviser of the Fund.

The Index seeks to identify an international group of American Depository Receipts that have qualified as International Dividend Achievers. The Index is designed to track the performance of dividend paying American Depository Receipts and non-United States common or ordinary stocks trading on the NYSE, NADDAQ or AMEX.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Editor , DividendChannel.com]

    According to the ETF Finder at ETF Channel, Enbridge stock is an underlying holding representing 1.97% of the Powershares International Dividend Achievers ETF (PID), which holds $20,709,837 worth of ENB shares.

  • [By Carlton Delfeld]

    Second, add to the mix, one of my long-time favorite ETFs, the PowerShares International Dividend Achievers (PID).

    To get into this exclusive basket, companies have to have a record of increasing dividends for five consecutive years. The United Kingdom and Canada make up 50% of its holdings with the US at only 6%.

Best US Stocks To Own Right Now: Colfax Corp (CFX)

Colfax Corporation (Colfax) is a global industrial manufacturing and engineering company. The Company provides gas- and fluid-handling and fabrication technology products and services to commercial and governmental customers worldwide under the Howden and ESAB brand names and by Colfax Fluid Handling. Colfax�� products are marketed principally under the brand names Allweiler, Baric, Fairmount Automation, Houttuin, Imo, LSC, COT-Puritech, Portland Valve, Tushaco, Warren and Zenith. The Company has production facilities in Europe, North America and Asia. It offers customized fluid handling solutions to meet individual customer needs. In February 2011, the Company acquired Rosscor Holding B.V. In December 2011, it acquired COT-PURITECH. On January 13, 2012, Colfax acquired Charter International plc. In May 2012, the Company acquired 91% interest in Soldex S.A.

Pumps

Colfax manufactures rotary positive displacement pumps. Its rotary positive displacement pumps consist of a casing containing screws, gears, vanes or similar components that are actuated by the relative rotation of that component to the casing, which results in the physical movement of the liquid from the inlet to the discharge at a constant rate.

Fluid Handling Systems

The Company manufactures fluid handling systems used primarily in the oil and gas, power generation, commercial marine and global defense markets. Colfax offers turnkey systems and support, including design, manufacture, installation, commission and service. Its systems include lubrication systems, which are used in rotating equipment in oil refineries and other process industries; custom designed packages used in crude oil pipeline applications; lubrication and fuel forwarding systems used in power generation turbines; packages for commercial marine engine rooms, and fire suppression systems for navy applications. Howden�� primary products are heavy-duty fans, rotary heat exchangers and compressors. The fans and heat! exchangers are used in coal-fired power stations, both in combustion and emissions control applications, underground mines, steel sintering plants and other industrial facilities. It design, manufacture and distribute fluid-handling products that transfer or control liquids in a range of applications.

Specialty Valves

The Company�� specialty valves are used primarily in naval applications. Its valve business has specialized machining, welding and fabrication capabilities that enable the Company to serve as a contractor to the United States Navy. In addition to designing and manufacturing valves, Colfax also offers repair and retrofit services for products manufactured by other valve suppliers through its aftermarket support centers located in Portland, Maine and San Diego, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Vera Yuan]

    Colfax (CFX) is a multi-platform industrial engineering and manufacturing company with a focus on two product areas: (1) gas & fluid handling, and (2) welding. The company was founded in 1995 by Steven and Mitchell Rales, best known as the founders of Danaher Corporation, and it has grown to its current size through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth. In 2012, Colfax completed the transformative acquisition of Charter International PLC, a UK-based industrial conglomerate many times its size, increasing revenues overnight from $700 million to $4 billion.

  • [By Holly LaFon]

    In the fourth quarter, he bought 32 new stocks. The largest new buys are: Air Lease (AL), Colfax (CFX) and Republic Bancorp Inc. (RBCAA).

    Air Lease (AL)

  • [By GuruFocus]

    George Soros (Trades, Portfolio) just reported his first quarter portfolio. He buys Citrix Systems Inc, Baker Hughes Inc, Comcast Corp, Spansion Inc, etc during the 3-months ended 03/31/2014, according to the most recent filings of his investment company, Soros Fund Management LLC. As of 03/31/2014, Soros Fund Management LLC owns 305 stocks with a total value of $10.1 billion. These are the details of the buys and sells.New Purchases: BHI, CODE, CTRP, CLI, AVB, COMM, CNQ, AGO, AUY, ATML, ASH, BXMT, CSTM, AEM, CMA, ARE, CHKP, AUQ, BEAV, CX, ADSK, AALCP, BLK, AIG, BIIB, ADEP, AMRI, ARWR, ATHX, BALT, BCRX, BEAT, CFX, CLFD, CUR, CODE,Added Positions: CTXS, CMCSA, CNP, ALTR, BRCD, CBS, CRM, CHTR, CCJ, CIEN, BIDU, ALLE, ABT, CDNS, ACT,Reduced Positions: AAPL, CCI, AMT, ABBV, AAL, BITA, AL, ANGI, ARIA, CBST, BA, BIRT, EXAR,Sold Out: C, BAC, CRI, AMZN, AGN, CF, BRCM, COTY, BMY, AMCX, CAR, A, ADBE, AFL,For the details of George Soros (Trades, Portfolio)'s stock buys and sells, go to http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=George+SorosThis is the sector weightings of his portfolio:Technology18.9%Energy14%Healthcare8.3%Consumer Defensive8.2%Communication Services8.1%Consumer Cyclical5.4%Industrials5.1%Basic Materials4.9%Financial Services2.5%Real Estate1.9%Utilities0.5%These are the top 5 holdings of George Soros (Trades, Portfolio)1. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA) - 10,310,041 shares, 5.4% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 10.67%2. Herbalife Ltd (HLF) - 4,901,337 shares, 2.8% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 52.9%3. EQT Corp (EQT) - 2,573,814 shares, 2.5% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 3.27%4. Adecoagro SA (AGRO) - 25,915,076 shares, 2.1% of the total portfolio.5. Halliburton Co (HAL) - 3,596,353 shares, 2.1% of the total portfolio. Shares reduced by 20.73%New Purchase: Baker Hughes Inc (BHI)George Soros (Trades, Portfolio) initiated holdings in Baker Hughes Inc. His purchase prices were between $51.82 and $65.27, with an estimated

Best US Stocks To Own Right Now: Daktronics Inc.(DAKT)

Daktronics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells various electronic display systems and related products, as well as provides related maintenance and professional services worldwide. The company offers scoring and timing products, such as indoor and outdoor scoreboards, digit displays, scoring and timing controllers, statistics software, and other related products; timing systems for sports events, primarily aquatics and track competitions; and audio systems integrated into a solution that include scoring, timing, message display, and/or video capability for sports venues, as well as related control systems. It also provides automated rigging and hoist products, which comprise of arena center-hung scoreboard/display systems for small and large sporting facilities; automated rigging for theatre applications, including high schools; and video display systems, such as displays to show various levels of video, graphics, and animation, as well as controllers to manage the operation of the display. In addition, the company provides architectural lighting and display products, which include freeform video elements; message display systems for commercial applications; digital billboards that offer digital display solutions for the outdoor advertising industry; Visiconn system, a primary software application for controlling content and playback loops for digital billboard applications; and digit and price displays consisting of outdoor time and temperature displays, as well as Fuelight digit displays designed for the petroleum industry. Further, it offers transportation products comprising various light emitting diodes-based displays for road management, parking, mass transit, and aviation applications; and rents its display equipment. The company sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through resellers. Daktronics, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Brookings, South Dakota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lauren Pollock]

    Daktronics Inc.'s(DAKT) fiscal second-quarter earnings climbed 2.1% as a higher volume of product orders offset lower margins. Results beat expectations, sending shares up 9.1% to $13.73 premarket.

  • [By John Udovich]

    On Tuesday, large cap�LCD glass maker�Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW) began surging some 20% in after hours trading after announcing that it will take over an existing joint venture (Samsung Corning Precision Materials) with Samsung���meaning it might be worth taking a closer look at some small cap peers like Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ: OLED), Daktronics, Inc (NASDAQ: DAKT) and SGOCO Group Ltd (NASDAQ: SGOC) who also have a piece of the LCD glass or related flat panel display action. Specifically, the deal involves a series of transactions to�give Corning Incorporated full ownership of Samsung Corning Precision Materials Co., Ltd. (SCP), which manufactures LCD glass in Korea and it should be noted that Corning already relies on sales of LCD-TV glass for the bulk of its profit. In addition, Corning Incorporated���board of directors has authorized an additional $2 billion of share repurchases through Dec. 31, 2015, dependent upon the transaction closing. Wendell P. Weeks, the chairman, CEO and president of Corning Incorporated was quoted in the press release announcing the deal as saying:

  • [By John Udovich]

    Small cap flat panel display stock�Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ: OLED) was hit by bearish news in late November and the trend lines on its technical�charts appear to be confused as to what direction the stock will head, meaning its probably time to take a closer look at the situation along with the stock�� performance verses that of flat panel display peers like large cap Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW)�and small cap players like Daktronics, Inc (NASDAQ: DAKT) and SGOCO Group Ltd (NASDAQ: SGOC)

Best US Stocks To Own Right Now: Principal Financial Group Inc(PFG)

Principal Financial Group, Inc. provides retirement savings, investment, and insurance products and services worldwide. The company?s Retirement and Investor Services segment provides retirement savings and related investment products and services, including a portfolio of asset accumulation products and services primarily to small and medium-sized businesses and individuals in the United States. This segment offers products and services to businesses for defined contribution pension plans, including 401(k) and 403(b) plans, defined benefit pension plans, nonqualified executive benefit plans, and employee stock ownership plan consulting services; and annuities, mutual funds, and bank products and services to the employees of its business customers and other individuals. Principal Financial Group?s Principal Global Investors segment offers a range of equity, fixed income, and real estate investments, as well as specialized overlay and advisory services to institutional inve stors. The company?s Principal International segment offers retirement products and services, annuities, mutual funds, institutional asset management, and life insurance accumulation products in Brazil, Chile, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand. Principal Financial Group?s U.S. Insurance Solutions segment offers individual life insurance, as well as specialty benefits in the United States. Its individual life insurance products include universal and variable universal life insurance and traditional life insurance; and specialty benefit products comprise group dental and vision insurance, individual and group disability insurance, and group life insurance, as well as fee-for-service claims administration and wellness services. The company was founded in 1879 and is based in Des Moines, Iowa.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Patricio Kehoe] ts newest deal with private benefits company Liazon Corp., through which the firm will offer employer-sponsored group benefit plans to small and medium businesses. While the company already sells ancillary benefit plans, this deal will now also include dental, life insurance, disability insurance and critical illness coverage in an attempt to stay on top of the insurance industry. As an industry leader, Principal has over $466 billion in assets under management and 19 million customers, fragmented among small and medium-size businesses. Furthermore, its solid fourth quarter results have encouraged investment gurus like Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) and Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio) to recently acquire large amounts of the company�� shares. So, let�� see what this insurer has in store for the future.

    Broadening Horizons

    Although Principal�� core business is in life insurance, the company has been pursuing a more diverse growth strategy lately, and is now focused on expanding its position in the retirement service and asset management segment. With almost 30,700 pension plans covering over 3.4 million customers, this business��growth rate has not only boosted overall profitability, marked by a 31% annual increase in operating earnings for fiscal 2013, but also helped offset the headwinds of low interest rates and volatility in the emerging markets. In fact, the fourth quarter showed a 65% boost in premium and fee income for the segmenta , consequence of the rollout of total retirement suite products.

    Moreover, Principal�� emphasis on retirement products and its use of capital salesforce for distribution has added on to the natural switching cost advantage in the insurance industry. Since plan sponsors provided with pension assets rarely switch providers, the company will likely benefit in the long term from its persistency, as seen in the quarterly 9% bump in recurring deposits.

    On another note, Principal�� fee-based b

  • [By Michael Calia]

    Principal Financial Group Inc.(PFG) said its fourth-quarter earnings rose 8.6%, touting its strong results for the period amid continued economic concern.

Best US Stocks To Own Right Now: News Corporation(NWSA)

News Corporation operates as a diversified media company worldwide. Its Cable Network Programming segment produces and licenses news, business news, sports, general entertainment, and movie programming for distribution through cable television systems and direct broadcast satellite operators primarily in the United States, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. The company?s Filmed Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures for distribution and licensing in entertainment media, as well as produces and licenses television programming worldwide. Its Television segment operates 27 broadcast television stations in the United States. The company?s Direct Broadcast Satellite Television segment distributes programming services via satellite and broadband directly to subscribers in Italy. Its Publishing segment provides newspapers and information services, such as publishing national newspapers in the United Kingdom, approximately 146 newspapers in Australia, and a metropolitan and a national newspaper in the United States; book publishing services, including the publishing of English language books worldwide; and integrated marketing services comprising the publishing of free-standing inserts, which are marketing booklets containing coupons, rebates, and other consumer offers, as well as provides in-store marketing products and services, primarily to consumer packaged goods manufacturers in the United States and Canada. The company also sells advertising, sponsorships, and subscription services on the company?s various digital media properties and outdoor advertising space on various media primarily in Russia and eastern Europe; and provides data systems and professional services that enable teachers to use data to assess student progress and deliver individualized instructions. News Corporation was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Corey Rosenbloom]

    We’ll skip News Corp. (NWSA) and focus on the other names for candidates.

    Specifically, Newmont Mining (NEM) has formed an interesting retracement to compress again between the 20- and 50-day EMAs:

  • [By Lee Jackson]

    News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWSA) boasts a cable-leading news operation and a host of additional entertainment properties. The consensus target for the stock is $17.30.

  • [By Chris Isidore]

    Time Inc., the nation's largest magazine publisher, was spun off by media conglomerate Time Warner, (TWX) the owner of CNN and CNNMoney, earlier this year. News Corp. (NWSA), owner of The Wall Street Journal, was spun off from 21st Century Fox (FOXA) a year ago.

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    News Corporation (NASDAQ: NWSA) shares gained 0.61% to touch a new 52-week high of $18.13. 21st Century Fox announced its plans to sell its 47% stake in Star China TV.

Best US Stocks To Own Right Now: Humana Inc.(HUM)

Humana Inc. offers various health and supplemental benefit plans in the United States. Its Government segment consists of beneficiaries of government benefit programs; and operates in three lines of businesses, including Medicare, Military, and Medicaid. The Medicare program provides hospital and medical insurance benefits to persons of age 65 and over and some disabled persons under the age of 65. The Military program offers health insurance coverage to the dependents of duty military personnel, and to retired military personnel and their dependents. The Medicaid program is a federal program that is state-operated to facilitate the delivery of health care services primarily to low-income residents. The Commercial segment consists of members enrolled in its medical and specialty products marketed to employer groups and individuals. This segment provides health maintenance organization products that offer prepaid health insurance coverage to its members through a network of independent primary care physicians, specialty physicians, and other health care providers; preferred provider organization products, which are offered primarily to employer groups and individuals; and administrative services only products that are provided to employers who self-insure their employee health plans. It also offers various specialty products, including dental, vision, and other supplemental products, as well as disease management services. As of December 31, 2010, Humana Inc. had approximately 10.2 million members enrolled in medical benefit plans; and approximately 7.1 million members enrolled in specialty products programs. The company markets its products through various channels comprising television, radio, the Internet, telemarketing, and direct mailings. In addition, it has strategic alliances with Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.; State Farm; and United Services Automobile Association to market its products. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Yesterday, Humana (HUM) left investors feeling sick. Is the recent weakness a buying opportunity or is today’s relative strength chance to sell into strength?

    Shares of Humana dropped 1.8% yesterday after it met fourth-quarter earnings forecast, maintained its 2014 guidance, and reported higher-than-expected revenue thanks to rapid Medicare membership growth.

    Citigroup’s Carl McDonald worries that “[growing much faster than the rest of the industry rarely ends well in managed care." He explains why:

    In Humana�� case, Medicare Advantage enrollment did quite well in 2012, but the company missed earnings, while PDP enrollment did quite well in 2008, but the company missed earnings. This year, Medicare Advantage retail enrollment will increase 50% more than Humana initially expected, while PDP enrollment will grow 375% more than Humana�� first guidance.

    Humana believes 2014 will be different,�McDonald says, but worries that "Humana is picking up
    members that competing plans are eager to lose." He rates Humana's stock Neutral with a $95 price target.

    JPMorgan's Justin Lake takes a longer-term view:

    With [near-term] uncertainty on rates and margins we expect the stock to remain volatile over next several months. These concerns do not change our positive multi-year view on the business and we remind investors that it was not very long ago that the debate in Med Adv was whether membership would decline precipitously due to rate pressure, destroying shareholder value. Now we see that not only [Humana], but the rest of the industry, has grown through the first half of 2014/2015 pressure and the debate has shifted to whether margins will be closer to 4.0% or 5.0% during the transition. Over time, we expect the focus to center on: 1) the growing Med Adv end market, 2) the industry�� ability to offer value to seniors w/o rate subsidies, 3) [Humana's] strong competitive positioning versus peers, and 4) the

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Dan goes on to discuss how these results generally reflect the high-quality insurance policies these states already made available to their residents. At the same time, he notes that health-insurance companies Humana (NYSE: HUM  ) , WellPoint (NYSE: WLP  ) , and�UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH  ) could earn less revenue in these states because of the lower premiums. At the same time, though, Dan points out that other rules under Obamacare would have limited insurers' ability to generate profits beyond a certain point in any event.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    On one hand, and in all fairness to Obamacare, when was the last time we saw any multibillion-dollar overhaul cost less than initially projected? Then again, these 73% have viable concerns, given that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS, reversed a recommendation last month to boost Medicare Advantage reimbursements by 3.3% instead of dropping them by 2.3% as it initially recommended in February. The move, the CMS claims, was made after it recalculated how doctors were being paid. However, it also came on the heels of lobbying attempts by the insurance industry and about 160 lawmakers. If the cost of Obamacare goes well over budget, that'll be great news for Humana (NYSE: HUM  ) �Humana generates 63% of its revenue from Medicare Advantage plans, which are supplemental health plans purchased by seniors to help offset the costs not covered by Medicare. If the government is unable to lower reimbursements to these companies, then Humana may have little to worry about.�

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Boy was I wrong when I wrote that momentum stocks would rise again at the end of March. Since that article ran on March 29, the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) has fallen 1.7%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has gained 0.2%. But there’s one part of that column I’m feeling o.k. about–Humana (HUM).

Best US Stocks To Own Right Now: Ishares Trust United States Treasury (TIP)

iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the inflation-protected sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Lehman Brothers U.S. Treasury TIPS Index (the Index). The Index includes all publicly issued, the United States Treasury inflation-protected securities that have at least one-year remaining to maturity, are rated investment grade and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in United States dollars and must be fixed-rate and non-convertible securities.

The Index is a market capitalization-weighted index. The Fund invests in a representative sample of the securities in the Index, which has a similar investment profile as the Index. The Fund�� investment advisor is Barclays Global Fund Advisor.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Chuck Saletta]

    By increasing the money you're investing now, you can improve your nest egg when the trust funds do empty, better protecting your lifestyle from those pending benefit cuts. Here are four investments to consider as you sock away extra money to make up for Social Security's shortfall:

    The S&P Depository Receipts (NYSEMKT: SPY  ) is one ETF that tracks the S&P 500, providing a low-cost way to get stock market return potential to help build your nest egg. For the potential of providing portfolio ballast, the iShares Barclay's US Treasury Bond (NYSEMKT: GOVT  ) ETF owns U.S. Treasury bonds. With interest rates so low, the returns from the bonds in that ETF are not likely to be stellar, but they at least do carry a government-backed guarantee of repayment. If you're worried about inflation ravaging your purchasing power over time, the iShares Barclay's TIPS Bond (NYSEMKT: TIP  ) ETF offers a way to buy government bonds that will increase along with inflation. But while those bonds may be able to keep up with the official inflation rate, they won't help much if your costs, like many people's, increase faster than inflation as you age. For the potential of an income stream that may grow faster than inflation but carries more risk of potential default or reduction, Vanguard's Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEMKT: VIG  ) may fit the bill. It's a low-cost way to invest in companies with solid track records of increasing their dividends. Still, there's a trade-off in that unlike Treasury bonds, there are no guarantees that dividends will get paid.

    No matter how you invest, the reality is that even lousy investing beats not investing at all. It certainly beats waking up sometime in the next two decades to find that your Social Security check has been slashed by a fourth and not having any alternative source of cash.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    In recent years, though, investors have discounted the potential impact of inflation on their portfolios. Consider these facts:

    Gold is the traditional safe-haven investment for those who believe that inflation will take away the purchasing power of paper currency. Yet the plunge in gold prices has led to a mass exodus of investor interest in gold, with the popular SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) losing billions of dollars not just due to price declines but also as investors have taken money out of the ETF entirely. Inflation-indexed bonds like the Treasury's TIPS have climbed so far in price that their real inflation-adjusted yields are negative, even for bonds that don't mature for another 20 years. That's been excellent news for existing investors in iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (NYSEMKT: TIP  ) and similar inflation-indexed bond investments, but it presents no inflation protection for those considering purchases now. The sole fly in the inflation ointment has come from energy prices, with gasoline and heating-oil prices having remained stubbornly high despite plentiful domestic production from unconventional plays as refiners Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX  ) , Valero (NYSE: VLO  ) , and others have greatly boosted their exports of refined products rather than letting Americans reap the benefits of high supply. Yet even the oil market has seen international spreads narrow, and gasoline prices have finally started to come down modestly, providing further downward pressure on inflation.

    Based on the conventional understanding of inflation, you'd think that all these signs of its demise were a good thing. The truth is far less clear.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    But lately, prices of existing TIPS have plunged, and that has sent real yields back into positive territory. TIPS with a 10-year maturity yield about 0.5%, while 20-year TIPS pay almost 1% above inflation and 30-years are yielding about 1.25% in real terms. Similarly, the TIPS ETF iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (NYSEMKT: TIP  ) has lost about 7.5% of its share-price value since the beginning of May, but its average real yield to maturity has gotten back to the break-even point.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    But bond investments have seen huge losses. Consider how broad-based the bond-market massacre has been:

    Broad measures of the overall bond market have shown definite signs of weakness, with iShares Core U.S. Bond (NYSEMKT: AGG  ) falling more than 3% since the end of April and the actively managed PIMCO Total Return (NYSEMKT: BOND  ) down almost 4% over that time frame. Longer-term-focused bonds have posted even worse results, with iShares 20+ Treasury (NYSEMKT: TLT  ) having fallen more than 8% since late April. Inflation-protected bonds are generally seen providing some defense against rising interest rates, but iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (NYSEMKT: TIP  ) has fallen by more than 7%. Even niche areas of the bond market have seen big losses, with the municipal-bond-focused iShares S&P Municipal Bond (NYSEMKT: MUB  ) down almost 5%, while the emerging-market bond ETF WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt has fallen 10%.

    A combination of factors has led to some of these declines, with the strong U.S. dollar hurting international bonds. But the driving force behind all of the drops comes from rising interest rates, and investors need to understand the threat that those rates pose to the future of their bond investments.

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