Saturday, November 30, 2013

Goldman Leads on Weak 'Hangover Friday' for Bank Stocks

Hot Gold Companies For 2014

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Goldman Sachs (GS) was the winner among large-cap banks during an abbreviated trading session Friday, with shares rising 0.4% to close at $168.94.

The broad indices ended mixed, with strong showings for Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Best Buy (BBY), amid the tiresome Black Friday shopping mania.

The KBW Bank Index (I:BKX) was down slightly to 68.01, with all but four of the 24 index components ending in the red.

The Department of Labor on Thursday -- when U.S. stock markets were closed -- reported that seasonally adjusted initial U.S. unemployment claims for the week ended Nov. 23 totaled 316,000, declining 10,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised total of 326,000. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected initial claims to come in at 328,000. The four-week moving average for first-time claims was 331,750, down from an upwardly revised 339,250 the previous week. Goldman Goldman's stock has returned 34% this year, following a 43% return during 2012. Gimme Credit analyst Kathleen Shanley rates Goldman Sachs a "buy," and in a client note on Wednesday wrote that "We don't expect GS to trade inside JPM, but see value at current levels." Shanley was discussing bond spreads to U.S. Treasury rates for Goldman and for JPMorgan Chase (JPM). "The GS 3.625% notes due Jan 2023 are seen at T+125, versus the litigation-challenged JPM 3.2% notes due Jan 2023 at T+108," she wrote. It's also interesting to compare the stock valuations for the two companies. Shares of Goldman Sachs trade for 1.2 times their reported Sept. 30 tangible book value of $143.86 and for 11.1 times the consensus 2014 earnings estimate of $15.27 a share, among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus 2015 EPS estimate is $15.89. JPMorgan's were down 0.5% to close at $57.22. The shares trade for 1.4 times their reported Sept. 30 tangible book value of $39.51 and for 9.0 times the consensus 2014 EPS estimate of $39.51. The consensus 2015 EPS estimate is $6.37. Please see JPM Is a 'Buy,' Despite WaMu, for more on JPMorgan Chase, including Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden's positive view of the stock. Deutcshe Bank analyst Matt O'Connor late in October upgraded Goldman Sachs to a "buy" rating from a "hold" rating, with a price target of $181, which assumes the company will trade for 1.1 times book value at the end of 2014. O'Connor in a note to clients wrote that since January, Goldman's shares had "lagged peers by 700bps--likely due to a disappointing 3Q (and even 2Q in some areas) and uncertainty over pending regulation." Writing that "expectations seem low," O'Connor added that Goldman's fourth-quarter results should see a benefit from "continued compensation flexibility (we don't think GS used all of this in 3Q), likely better relative performance in both FICC and EQ trading and good completed M&A."

GS Chart
GS data by YCharts RELATED STORIES: Killing GSEs Could Kill Fixed-Rate Mortgage Loans, Says Bove Must-See Chart: 'Worst' Big Bank Stocks of 2013 Buffett Banks Are Poised to Return Most Capital in Fed Stress Tests Banks Can Absorb $155 Billion in Crisis-Era Litigation: S&P6 4 Takeaways From Recent Housing Data Don't Bail Out of the Markets...Yet: Oaktree's Marks Bracing for Bubbles as Credit Risk Surges to Zero JPMorgan Torpedoes Bank Industry Earnings A Chart You Should See: Best Big Bank Stock Performers -- Written by Philip van Doorn in Jupiter, Fla. >Contact by Email. Follow @PhilipvanDoorn

Friday, November 29, 2013

Motley Fool: Is Amazon cool or uncool?

Some companies, like Apple, Nike, and Disney, are well-liked by their customers. Other companies, like Wal-Mart, Microsoft, and Goldman Sachs, tend to be feared.

This is the view of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN ) CEO Jeff Bezos, as laid out in an internal memo titled Amazon.love. The memo is discussed in detail in The Everything Store, the outstanding new book about Bezos and Amazon by Brad Stone. Stone describes the memo as laying out a vision for "how the Amazon founder wants his company to conduct itself and be perceived by the world."

In order to develop a strategy for this vision, Bezos actually made a list of cool and uncool attributes of companies, which is included in the memo. Here are some of them:

Rudeness is not cool.

Young is cool.

Winning is cool.

Defeating tiny guys is not cool.

Explorers are cool.

Conquerors are not cool.

According to Stone, Bezos believes that being seen as "an explorer rather than a conqueror, was critically important." In the memo, Bezos writes, "It is not enough to be inventive – that pioneering spirit must also come across and be perceivable by the customer base." Bezos concluded the Amazon.love memo by proposing to "assign a more thorough analysis of this topic to a thoughtful VP."

How should investors view Bezos' attempt to improve the world's perception of Amazon?

If you have to ask...

First of all, it's probably not an attribute of cool companies to put together an exhaustive analysis of what is required for being cool. And Jeff Bezos, who remains a devoted Star Trek fan, might not be an expert on this particular subject. As a Civil War buff myself, I'm not exactly casting stones here, however.

All kidding aside, I wonder if studying the attributes of cool companies is the wrong way to approach this problem. Amazon has obviously received a lot of criticism over the years for its treatment of partners, competitors, and state and local governments. Rather than worrying about perception, it! might make sense to devote more attention to better understanding this criticism.

Amazon might even discover that focusing overwhelmingly on the well-being of the customer ends up hurting its reputation with other stakeholders. Is the price of that reputational harm too high over the long term? So far, it doesn't appear to be. That could change, however.

Required reading

Amazon's leadership team would be wise to study Stone's book, in my opinion. We know, of course, that Bezos's wife, Mackenzie Bezos, has read it. Despite her negative review, I think there's a lot of material here for the firm to consider.

Stone is quite fair in discussing the various instances where Amazon didn't treat its competitors or partners particularly well. For example, Stone makes a persuasive case that Amazon was too ruthless in its acquisition of Quidsi, which operates Diapers.com, among several other websites. The Federal Trade Commission actually examined the deal, which raised a number of red flags, for four and half months, according to Stone. The deal was approved in the end.

There are numerous other examples of aggressive competition and questionable practices throughout Stone's book. The discussion of Amazon's treatment of publishers and book stores is particularly troubling, even if everyone is already familiar with the broad outlines of the story.

Digital books have completely disrupted the publishing industry, and that huge trend has naturally resulted in winners and losers. After reading Stone's account, it feels like Amazon's overwhelming victory resembled that of Rome over Carthage in the second century BC. Did Rome really need to put salt in Carthage's fields?

10 Best Small Cap Stocks To Invest In 2014

So, what will Amazon need to do to become cool? I have no idea. As a shareholder of Amazon, I don't really care if the company is cool or not. I would love to see it not ! approach ! all of its business dealings as a zero-sum game, however, even if that means its customers need to pay a bit more for their products. Who knows, maybe treating all stakeholders fairly is cool.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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Monday, November 25, 2013

Why You Should Do Your Holiday Shopping Online

Top Undervalued Companies To Invest In Right Now

LIFESTYLE-US-IT-INTERNET-RETAIL-HOLIDAYKaren Bleier, AFP/Getty Images When it comes to holiday shopping, more and more consumers are heading to their computers rather than the mall. Nearly 52 percent of those surveyed by the National Retail Federation plan to shop online this year, up from 44 percent in 2012. That's a smart move according to the deal experts we consulted, because shopping online can save time and money. The savings hold true even on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when stores have big sales. Most retailers will be offering the same discounts on their websites as in their stores this holiday season, says Rob Gough, president of CouponChad.com and DefinitiveDeals.com. Plus, when you shop online, you have access to several tools that make it easy to compare prices and find the best deals -- without spending money on gas to drive all over town and giving up time with family over the holiday weekend to battle the crowds. Price-comparison sites and tools. It's easy to find out which retailers have the best prices on items on your holiday gift list if you use price-comparison sites such as Amazon.com (AMZN), PriceGrabber.com or Google Shopping (GOOG). When you search for an item on these sites, they produce lists of the retailers offering the product, prices, shipping costs, and seller information and ratings. Or you could download a browser add-on, such as PriceBlink, which can help you find the lowest price when you shop online. When you are viewing a product online, it scans more than 4,000 merchants' sites to determine if any offer that product at a lower price. A toolbar will pop up at the top of your browser alerting you to savings. Karl Quist, president of PriceBlink, says that if you see a merchant offering a product for up to 20 percent less than other retailers, recognize that it's a special deal that you should snap up because it won't last. Coupon codes. When you're comparing prices at several online retailers, be sure to check whether any are offering coupons that will lower their prices even more. Sites such as CouponCabin.com, CouponChad.com, DefinitiveDeals.com and RetailMeNot.com offer coupon codes, many of which you won't find advertised on retailers' sites. The PriceBlink browser add-on also displays coupons being offered by retailers whose sites you visit. Gough of CouponChad.com cautions shoppers to be smart about using coupons. Retailers know that consumers often opt for coupons that offer a particular dollar amount off rather than a percentage off a purchase -- even when the latter option offers better savings, he says. If both types of coupons are available for a product, calculate the savings you'll get with each to determine which coupon code to use. Deal sites. Another reason finding deals online can be easier than in a store is the plethora of deal sites that do the bargain hunting for you, such as Ben's Bargains, dealnews.com and Offers.com. The number of deals on these sites can be overwhelming, says Joe Warner, managing editor of Ben's Bargains. So he recommends that you have a shopping list so you buy only items you need. You can register at Ben's Bargains to receive email alerts for deals based on keywords so that you'll know when items you're looking for go on sale. Online gift cards. While you're shopping online, it's easy to check sites such as Gift Card Granny to see if it has any discounted online gift cards you can use to save money on your purchases. Gift Card Granny sells merchants' gift cards for less than face value. So if you buy a $100 Macy's gift card for $90 and use it to make a purchase on Macys.com (M), you'll get an instant $10 savings. Free shipping. With the majority of retailers offering free shipping this holiday season, you shouldn't make a purchase online if it doesn't include free shipping, says Offers.com Vice President Howard Schaffer. You can search for free shipping codes at FreeShipping.org. If a retailer requires a minimum purchase amount to receive free shipping and you're not quite at that limit, Schaffer recommends checking your holiday gift list to see if there's another item you can add to your basket -- or perhaps a gift you need to purchase for an upcoming birthday, anniversary or other occasion. You also can wait until Free Shipping Day on Dec. 18, when more than 400 merchants will be offering free shipping on all purchases with guaranteed delivery by Christmas Eve.

5 Stocks Triggering Breakouts on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Best Bank Companies To Buy Right Now

Cedar Fair

Cedar Fair (FUN) is a regional amusement park operator that owns eleven amusement parks, six outdoor water parks, one indoor water park and five hotels. This stock closed up 1.2% at $43.55 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 1.21 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 105,952

Volume % Change: 863%

From a technical perspective, FUN bounced modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $42.67 and back above its 50-day moving average at $43.33 with monster upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of FUN within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if FUN manages to take out Wednesday's high of $44.20 to its 52-week high at $44.49 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FUN as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $42.85 or above that recent low of $42.67 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 105,952 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then FUN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $50 to $53.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX) is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the acquisition, development and commercialization of medically important pharmaceutical products for the treatment of cancer and renal disease. This stock closed up 19.7% to $10.49 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 9.47 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.98 million

Volume % Change: 426%

From a technical perspective, KERX exploded higher here right above some near-term support at $8.61and back above its 50-day moving average of $9.29 with monster upside volume. This move has taken shares of KERX out of its recent downtrend over the last few weeks, which saw the stock fall from $10.92 to its recent low of $8.61. Shares of KERX are now quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if KERX manages to take out Wednesday's high of $10.58 to its 52-week high at $10.92 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in KERX as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $9.29, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.98 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then KERX will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $13 to $15.

Phoenix New Media

Phoenix New Media (FENG) is a new media company providing premium content on an integrated platform across Internet, mobile and TV channels in China. This stock closed up 6.1% at $11.67 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 1.32 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 771,903

Volume % Change: 175%

From a technical perspective, FENG ripped higher here right above some near-term support at $10.96 with above-average volume. This stock just formed a double bottom chart pattern at $11.02 to $10.96. Shares of FENG are now quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if FENG manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $11.90 to its 52-week high at $13 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FENG as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $10.96 or its 50-day at $10.27 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 771,903 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then FENG will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $15 to $16.

Radian Group

Radian Group (RDN) provides credit-related insurance coverage and financial services to mortgage lenders and other financial institutions. This stock closed up 7.6% to $14.46 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 9.35 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 4.67 million

Volume % Change: 325%

From a technical perspective, RDN ripped higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $13.58 with monster upside volume. This move pushed shares of RDN into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $14.27 to $14.42. Shares of RDN are now quickly moving within range of triggering an even bigger breakout trade. That trade will hit if RDN manages to take out Wednesday's high of $14.51 to its 52-week high at $14.80 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RDN as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $13.58 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 4.67 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then RDN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $17 to $20.

Portola Pharmaceuticals

Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA) is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes novel therapeutics in the areas of thrombosis, other hematologic disorders and inflammation for patients who currently have limited or no approved treatment options. This stock closed up 11.9% to $25.55 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 1.03 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 78,362

Volume % Change: 1075%

From a technical perspective, PTLA exploded higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $24.22 with monster upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of PTLA within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if PTLA manages to take out Wednesday's high of $26.70, and then once it clears its all-time high of $30.95 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PTLA as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $24.22 or above $23 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 78,362 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then PTLA will set up to enter new all-time-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $35 to $40.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Earnings Season



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>>5 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Sunday, November 24, 2013

4 Stocks to Give Your Portfolio a Brazilian Boost

Facebook Logo Twitter Logo RSS Logo Hilary Kramer Popular Posts: Twitter IPO: Invest or Not? Here’s My View4 Stocks to Give Your Portfolio a Brazilian BoostHow to Profit From Obamacare Bureaucracy Recent Posts: 4 Stocks to Give Your Portfolio a Brazilian Boost Twitter IPO: Invest or Not? Here’s My View Are We Really in Danger of a Government Shutdown? View All Posts

When I look for investing opportunities outside the U.S., Brazil is at the top of my list. I spent 10 years working and investing in Latin America because of my involvement in ventures to start AOL Latin America, and I like it for several reasons.

Its currency (the real) has been beaten down so far that it can only go up. In late summer, the central bank intervened to stop the slide, and the real has gained in value since then. At the same time, the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index Fund (EWZ), one of the main ETFs tracking Brazil, has bounced about 20%.

In addition, Brazil already has a powerful middle class that continues to grow. The country is rich in natural resources, for which demand should pick up as the global economy strengthens. Plus, it will host two major events in the next few years: the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics. These are the world’s two biggest sporting events, and I look for them to put Brazil on the world map the same way the Beijing Olympics displayed China’s modernity and ingenuity in 2008.

I can tell you from my firsthand experience that no other country in Latin America compares to Brazil's innovation and work ethic.

In terms of specific plays, here are four that interest me as longer-term opportunities to benefit from the growing middle class:

Itau Unibanco (ITUB): A lot of investors have never heard of Itau because it’s headquartered in Brazil, but it’s one of the world’s largest financial institutions. With 5,000 branches, 100,000 employees and nearly $500 billion in assets (yes, half a trillion!), ITUB is not just the largest Latin American bank, it is one of the biggest in the world. With proven dominance in Brazil (and Latin America), Itau Unibanco is a go-to financial pick, and it currently yields an attractive 3.5%. I recently recommended that my Inner Circle readers sell ITUB on a nice bounce due to the risk of near-term weakness on economic data out of China, but I'm already looking for an opportunity to get back in.

Top 10 Stocks To Own For 2014

Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (ABV): Better known as Ambev, it is one of the largest brewers in the world and the largest in Latin America (in terms of sales volume). It makes a variety of beverages, including beer and soft drinks, and is also one of the biggest independent PepsiCo bottlers in the world. The company has done a good job lately of emphasizing premium beers, which carry a higher margin, to offset recent lower sales volumes. ABV yields a solid 4.6%.

Brasil Foods SA (BRF) is South America's largest food processing company, involved in everything from meat and dairy products to pasta, frozen vegetables and soybean-related products. The company has been around since 1939, and Forbes ranked it 39th on its list of the world's most innovative companies. It brings in about $13 billion in sales each year, and analysts are estimating that earnings will grow from 94 cents per share in 2012 to $1.94 for all of 2013, with additional growth to $2.78 in 2014.

Mercadolibre (MELI): The name of the company is Spanish for "free market," and I think of MELI as the eBay (EBAY) of Latin America. Online shopping is growing at a faster rate in Latin America as the middle class continues to grow, and Brazil is one of the hot spots. Ecommerce in Brazil reached $17 billion in 2012, according to eMarketer, and that number is expected to jump to $29 billion by the end of 2017 as smartphone usage increases and more people access the Internet. Mercadolibre operates ecommerce sites where items are sold either through auction or a fixed price. MELI also has an electronic payment business called MercadoPago, similar to eBay's PayPal, which can be used on MELI’s sites as well as for payments elsewhere. We took profits in it earlier this year in my GameChangers newsletter, but I continue to watch it closely and like its long-term potential.

Brazil's had its struggles in 2013, but the surging middle class will push the country's economy to new heights. If you're smart enough to get into these stocks now, it can do the same for you.

Hilary Kramer is the editor of GameChangers.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

3 Under-$10 Tech Stocks to Keep on Your Radar

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

Parkervision

Parkervision (PRKR) designs, develops and markets proprietary radio frequency technologies and products for use in semiconductor circuits for wireless communication products in the U.S. This stock closed up 5.9% to $3.90 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $3.65-$4.00

52-Week Range: $1.82-$7.78

Thursday's Volume: 1.12 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.45 million

From a technical perspective, PRKR spiked sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $3.48 and back above its 200-day moving average at $3.86 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of PRKR within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if PRKR manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at Thursday's high of $4 to $4.05 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PRKR as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $3.48 or above more support at $3.45 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 2.45 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then PRKR will set up for a potentially large move higher that takes the stock back towards $5 to $5.50.

Aviat Networks

Aviat Networks (AVNW) manufactures wireless networking products, solutions and services to mobile and fixed operators, private network operators, government agencies, transportation and utility companies, public safety agencies and broadcast network operators. This stock closed up 3.9% to $2.13 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $2.05-$2.13

52-Week Range: $1.93-$3.90

Thursday's Volume: 229,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 340,103

From a technical perspective, AVNW spiked higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $2.12 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock has been trending sideways for the last month and change, with shares moving between $1.92 on the downside and $2.30 on the upside. Shares of AVNW are now starting to trend within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern. That breakout will hit if AVNW manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.16 to $2.30 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AVNW as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $2 or at $1.95 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 340,103 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then AVNW will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.60 to around $2.80.

DragonWave

DragonWave (DRWI) is a provider of high-capacity packet microwave solutions that drive next-generation IP networks. This stock closed up 4.2% to $1.24 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.18-$1.29

52-Week Range: $1.08-$3.74

Thursday's Volume: 1.57 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 493,738

From a technical perspective, DRWI spiked sharply higher here with heavy upside volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last three months and change, with shares plunging lower from its high of $3.58 to its recent low of $1.08. During that downtrend, shares of DRWI have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of DRWI might be ready to see an end to its downside volatility since the stock has started to spike higher over the last few days with heavy upside volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in DRWI as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $1.18 or above its 52-week low of $1.08 and then once it sustains a move or close above Thursday's high of $1.29 to more near-term resistance at $1.34 with volume that hits near or above 493,738 shares. If we get that move soon, then DRWI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.52 to its 50-day moving average at $1.64. Any high-volume move above $1.64 will then give DRWI a chance to tag $1.86 to $2, or even $2.20.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>Profit From 5 Trades Warren Buffett Made



>>4 Stocks Spiking on Unusual Volume



>>5 Earnings Short-Squeeze Plays

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Is the Oracle Right About XOM?

Twitter Logo Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Aaron Levitt Popular Posts: The 5 Most Dependable Dividends In EnergySolar Stocks Are Hot, But CSIQ Is HotterWhy You Should Buy Into Icahn’s New RIG Recent Posts: Is the Oracle Right About XOM? Ship, Baby, Ship! How to Get Ready for U.S. Oil Exports The 5 Most Dependable Dividends In Energy View All Posts

Given Warren Buffett's status as "America's Favorite Value Investor", people go absolutely crazy when the Oracle's 13F filings are made public. That's because SEC document can provide a window into Buffett's thinking on which stocks are the biggest bargains in the market. And given Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) favorite holding period of “forever," regular retail investors truly have a chance to piggyback on of the greatest investors of our time.

warren buffett 630 headshotWith that said, the Oracle of Omaha's latest major is buy is certainly a doozy in both the size and potential value. That huge purchase was major integrated oil stock Exxon Mobil (XOM).

For investors, Buffett buying XOM serves as comment on just how cheap the energy giant has become relative to its peers and rivals. That means the time to "put a tiger in your tank" maybe finally here.

$3.45 Billion

With production problems and refining issues plaguing Exxon over the last few quarters, the stock has significantly underperformed many of the other stocks in the energy sector. That has resulted in many value hounds looking at XOM shares in a whole new light. Respected value investor Don Yacktman recently said that "Exxon is like a reasonably-priced high-quality bond."

Buffett did Yacktman one step better and sunk a ton of money — $3.45 billion to be exact — into the integrated energy firm. That makes Berkshire's buy of XOM the largest new holding since adding International Business Machines (IBM) back in 2011. Overall, the Oracle is now the proud owner of 40.1 million shares of Exxon.

While the filing doesn't actually say whether or not Buffett made the decision to purchase shares — he has been farming out smaller purchases to managers at GEICO and Berkshire's other insurance subsidiaries — it can be seen as major conformation on just how cheap Exxon has gotten over the past year. Shares are only up about 7.7% this year — with much of that gain coming over the last few weeks after XOM reported earnings. That performance pales in comparison to the S&P 500's return of about 26%.

$3.45 billion isn't a small chunk of change, so someone at Berkshire must truly believe that XOM shares are a real value. The other interesting tell from the filing is that Berkshire Hathaway also decreased its stake in ConocoPhillips (COP) by roughly 44%. Buffett and company now only own 13.5 million shares of COP — down from 24 million. Buffet hung onto ownership of COP's spun-off refining arm Phillips 66 (PSX).

So given Buffett's newfound stance on XOM and the energy sector, the question is whether he’s right about buying Exxon.

Signs Point to Yes

It's true that XOM has suffered over the last few years, but things are finally starting to turn in the right direction for the integrated giant. Last quarter, the oil stock managed to see a 1.5% increase in its output of oil and natural gas, thanks to a slate of new projects that pushed output back over the 4 million barrels per day mark.

That increase follows a two-year stretch of production declines.

Perhaps more importantly, Exxon is now finding that oil more cheaply than its rivals. According to data provided by Bloomberg, XOM spends about $19.27 to find a barrel of crude oil. That's less than the $21.48 per-barrel at rival Chevron (CVX) and $22.66 for beleaguered BP (BP). With a plethora of new projects set to begin pumping out crude in 2015 and beyond, Exxon looks to continue minting plenty of cash.

And as we know, cash is music to Buffett's ears.

XOM is a cash flow machine, and, despite its earnings drop, the energy firm still managed to make a staggering $7.87 billion or $1.79 per share in profits for the last quarter. Those hefty cash flows have continuously made their way back to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. Exxon managed to hand out roughly $5.8 billion of that cash back to shareholders in the third quarter alone. And with a low payout ratio and a long history of dividend increases on its book, Buffett is setting himself up for long term at XOM.

Meanwhile, he's buying that cash on the cheap.

Exxon shares are tantalizing value based on various metrics. XOM currently trade at a forward P/E just north of 12 — roughly a 23% discount to the broad market's forward multiple. The valuation is cheaper than many of its large integrated rivals and even cheaper when compared to U.S. shale-focused independent E&P firms like Southwestern Energy (SWN). Meanwhile, other metrics like price-to-book value and price-to-sales also tilt towards XOM's favor.

Snagging Up XOM Shares

Exxon is truly is like a cheaply priced bond and is priced for success. So no surprise that Buffett took the plunge in a big way — XOM has all the hallmarks of a Berkshire holding. Ultimately, Buffett's buy of XOM shows just how cheap shares have gotten over the last few quarters

For individual investors, that cheapness could mean it is time to add Exxon to a portfolio.

Following Buffett's lead into Exxon makes a whole lot of sense. Over the long term, XOM's history of dividends makes it a powerful portfolio ally. While it might not “explode" upwards like some smaller shale-focused firms, the firm will continue to pump out oil, dividends and cash flows years to come. That makes XOM an ideal buy & hold for any portfolio.

As of this writing, Aaron Levitt did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Get Free Advice on Maximizing Social Security

TD Ameritrade and William Meyer of Kiplinger's Social Security Solutions will be hosting a Webcast today, September 23, at 6 p.m. ET to help people learn how to maximize Social Security benefits. The 60-minute Webcast is free, but you must register in advance to listen to the program (register here).

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Sunday, November 17, 2013

Maria Bartiromo talks with Mark Cuban

Mark Cuban, Internet billionaire, Dallas Mavericks owner and Shark Tank star is in fighting form. Recently cleared of insider trading charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission, he is naming names in the government attacks leveled against him which a jury found baseless. I caught up with him to find out what happened and how he cleared his name. Our interview follows, edited for clarity and length.

Q: You have been cleared of all charges of insider trading, a stinging rebuke for the U.S. government. Can you tell us what happened?

A: The SEC took a flyer in 2006 on a case that had no foundation. As the evidence confirmed my position, that there was nothing even resembling insider trading, they refused to drop the case. So we had to spend seven years and a lot of money to get to a point where a jury took just a few hours, including lunch and coffee breaks, to confirm that the SEC did not have a case.

Q: The SEC initially said you used a private tip to avoid a loss on the sale of your 600,000 shares of Internet company Mamma.com shares back in 2004. How did they get this so wrong?

A: Confirmation bias. They ignored fact after fact. Even those written by SEC agents. Instead of dealing with facts, they misrepresented and mislabeled testimony and documentation and ignored the obvious.

Q: The news of a private placement had already leaked in the market so why would they target you specifically?

A: Remember, this dates back to 2006 when Linda Thomsen was head of SEC enforcement. This is just my opinion, but I really get the sense that she had no idea what she was doing. She was looking for a name to prosecute and I was the name she came upon. To give you a sense of timing, they announced the charges against me three weeks before Bernie Madoff was arrested. Maybe she knew Madoff was coming and she wanted something to divert attention from it? Maybe she was just desperate for a skin on the wall. I don't know. What was certain was that they wanted the b! iggest bang for their PR buck. Imagine how I felt to wake up the morning of Nov. 18, 2008, and turn on CNBC to find that I was the non-stop headline. It wasn't fun. It made me feel sick to my stomach.

So to answer your question, I can only guess. You have to ask Ms. Thomsen.

(Editor's note: Thomsen didn't respond to e-mails seeking comment.)

Q: Do you think it's that the SEC doesn't have the right resources and people overseeing business and the securities industry or are they just trying to make examples of high profile people?

A: I think they exemplify what type of organization you should expect when you have nothing but attorneys and in particular former prosecutors running the show. From every dealing and observation I have had of the SEC, it is obvious that lawyers run the show. There is a culture of trying to win, not trying to find justice. There is a culture of looking to find their next job. I always say that SEC equals "Swiftly Enhanced Careers." There is no business sense that I can find. That has, in my humble opinion, led to a bloated entity that has no idea what resources it needs, no concept of what its true goals should be or how to get there. They don't know how to make markets fairer or better at creating capital for business. They just know how to use the courts to litigate matters. (The SEC declined comment.)

Q You refused to settle and went to trial. You had to spend more money on lawyers than on the potential fines you would have had to pay. Why was this so important to take this to the mat.

A: Because I hate to be bullied. I love this country. The idea that the people who over the first six years of my case ran the SEC could just ignore facts and care only about winning and losing and have no interest in justice, turned my stomach. I have the resources to fight. I felt compelled to take up that fight.

Q: The SEC has been trying to be tougher on wrong doing to show the world they are not asleep at the wheel after missing things li! ke Bernie! Madoff. Are they targeting the wrong people?

A: It's not about who they target, it's the concept that PR solves the problem. The SEC tries to maximize the amount of press they can get. They have yet to prove, or my guess even research and evaluate whether or not there is any correlation between PR and safe markets and efficient capital formation. Despite this lack of knowledge, they keep on taking the same approach year after year. You know the definition of insanity.

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Q: You are also the owner of the Dallas Mavericks. Is this for profit or just for fun? How big of a business is owning a basketball team.

A: It's both. As far as size, it depends on how you value an NBA team. In my case the team isn't for sale, so the value really doesn't matter. The only value that really matters to me is the value I can bring to our customers. I want them to love every minute of a Mavs game, no matter how they consume it.

Q: You are also one of the stars of the show Shark Tank which features financiers analyzing and deciding whether to invest in new products presented by entrepreneurs. What's most important in deciding whether it not to put money into something? What are the important metrics you use to decide?

A: Sometimes you buy the horse, sometimes you invest in the jockey. It really comes down to the actual business and the upside. The ultimate scenario is a great entrepreneur with a business that is poised to explode. But every now and then I love to invest in a company that may not set the world on fire, but has the chance to establish itself, create jobs and have a positive impact.

Shark Tank is so unique in that we send the message every week that the American Dream is alive and well. We have entrepreneurs from all over the country, from every demographic, each with a company that any of our viewers could have created themselves. We s! end the m! essage that if our entrepreneurs can do it, so can you.

That is something I am proud to be part of. I can't tell you how many times people have told me the show has inspired them to start their own business or push themselves harder to make their business successful.

That is an amazing feeling for me and why I do the show.

Q: You were active in the '90s with several Internet companies, broadcast.com and others. Twitter went public and Facebook and Google are on fire again. Are we entering another Internet bubble?

A: I wouldn't call it a bubble. In a bubble any company that resembles a high flyer takes off as well. We aren't seeing Twitter or Facebook wannabes go public. We aren't seeing tiny social media companies go public and run up.

What are seeing instead is momentum investments that are driving stocks to new highs. That is not from being in a bubble; it's from the decline in the number of stocks available to investors. I think there are only 3,700 operating companies in the Wilshire 5000. There are fewer than half the number of public companies trading today than there were 15 years ago.

Which makes the point that more and more money is chasing fewer and fewer stocks. The law of supply and demand says that pushes up pricing until there is a better risk reward somewhere else, or something else like a flash crash/Nasdaq freeze destabilizes market confidence and causes money to be pulled from equities again.

And it will happen again. That is probably the only certainty there is in the stock markets.

Q: Are you an Investor in Twitter? What do you think if its prospects?

A: No. It's a great company. I think they did the right thing by limiting the number of shares they offered to the market. That pushed up the price, which puts them in a great position to do a secondary and not only raise more capital at a higher price, but also allows insider shares to be placed in the market in an orderly fashion.

All that said, I have not been chasing sto! cks here.! I have no idea how high they will go, twitter included. I tend to try to be patient, wait on the sidelines, be hedged and when whatever happens that will crush stocks, whenever it happens, I will be in great position to buy.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014

The following three companies reported the largest CEO buys in terms of transaction amount over the past week. A common idea regarding insider buying is that an insider wouldn�� spend their own money investing unless they expected the price to rise. Which leads to the importance of CEO buys. CEO insider transactions are important to note because as the leader of a company CEOs are typically thought of to have the most insight into the inner workings of a company.

Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)

President and CEO of Invesco Richard King reported a rather notable insider buy on Aug. 5. The CEO purchased 6,500 shares of company stock at an average price of $15.41 per share. This purchase cost King a total of $100,165. Since this buy, the share price has increased a minor 0.13%. King now holds on to at least 56,545 shares of Invesco Mortgage stock.

King�� buy comes as the company�� price has recently dwindled down to nearly its 2-year low price of $14.13. His buy is also the first insider buy reported since May. Since the last purchase reported in May, the share price has dropped -21.32%.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014: Perma-Fix Environmental Services Inc.(PESI)

Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an environmental and technology know-how company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Treatment and Services. The Treatment segment provides nuclear, low-level radioactive, mixed waste containing hazardous and low-level radioactive constituents, and hazardous and non-hazardous waste treatment, processing, and disposal services primarily through four licensed and permitted treatment and storage facilities. It also engages in the research and development activities to identify, develop, and implement waste processing techniques for problematic waste streams. The Services segment offers on-site waste management services to commercial and government customers; and operates an equipment calibration and maintenance laboratory that services, maintains, and calibrates health physics and industrial hygiene instrumentation. It also provides technical services, which include health physic and radiological control technician services; safety and industrial hygiene services; and staff augmentation services, such as consulting, engineering, project management, waste management, environmental, and decontamination and decommissioning field personnel, technical personnel, and management and services. In addition, this segment offers consulting engineering services, including consulting environmental services comprising air, water, and hazardous waste permitting; air, soil, and water sampling; compliance reporting; emission reduction strategies; compliance auditing; and various compliance and training activities. The company serves research institutions, commercial companies, and public utilities, as well as governmental agencies through direct sales and intermediaries. Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014: Clearfield Inc.(CLFD)

Clearfield, Inc. offers telecommunications equipment and products in the United States. It engages in the design and manufacture of standard and custom connectivity products, such as fiber distribution systems, optical components, outside plant cabinets, and fiber and copper cable assemblies. The company?s products include Clearview cassettes; Clearview xPAK to land small port count fiber terminations and optical components; Fieldsmart fiber crossover distribution systems that provide fiber management modularity and scalability across the fiber network; FieldSmart fiber scalability center, a modular and scalable outside plant cabinet, which allow users to align their capital equipment expense with subscriber revenue; and FieldSmart fiber delivery point product line for the access network that incorporates the delivery of fiber connectivity to the neighborhood or business district. It also offers FieldSmart Small Count Delivery, a series of enclosure systems and wall-mount enclosures optimized for environments, such as cell backhaul, business class service delivery, node segmentation, and fiber exhaust in a field pedestal, sub-station turn-up, or fiber-to-the-desk deployment; and CraftSmart, a line of optical protection field enclosures used in the fiber industry for the optimization of fiber protection and storage. In addition, the company packages optical components for signal coupling, splitting, termination, multiplexing, demultiplexing, and attenuation for a seamless integration within its fiber management platform. It serves communication service providers consisting of fiber-to-the-premises; large enterprises; and original equipment manufacturer markets through various sales channels comprising direct to customers, distribution partners, and original equipment suppliers. The company was formerly known as APA Enterprises, Inc. and changed its name to Clearfield, Inc. in January 2008. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Plymouth, Minnesota.

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Novellus Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, sells, and supports equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company operates in two segments, Semiconductor Group and Industrial Applications Group. The Semiconductor Group segment provides equipment used in wafer processing, advanced wafer-level packaging, and light-emitting diode (LED) manufacturing. Its deposition systems use chemical vapor deposition (CVD), physical vapor deposition (PVD), and electrochemical deposition (ECD) processes to form transistor, capacitor, and interconnect layers in an integrated circuit; and High-Density Plasma CVD (HDP-CVD) and Plasma-Enhanced CVD (PECVD) systems employ chemical plasma to deposit dielectric material within the gaps formed by the etching of aluminum, or as a blanket film that can be etched with patterns for depositing conductive materials into the etched dielectric. This segment?s CVD Tungsten systems are used to deposit co nductive contacts between transistors and interconnects; PVD systems are used to deposit conductive aluminum and copper metal layers by sputtering metal atoms; and Electrofil ECD systems are used for depositing copper to form the conductive wiring on integrated circuits using copper interconnects. The Industrial Applications Group segment provides grinding, lapping, and polishing equipment for fine-surface optimization. It offers products for use in the semiconductor and LED manufacturing, automotive, aerospace, medical, green energy, and glass and ceramics industries, as well as manufacturers of products, such as pumps, transmissions, compressors, and bearings. The company markets its products through direct sales force and manufacturer?s representatives primarily in Europe, the United States, Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, and southeast Asia. Novellus Systems, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014: iParty Corporation(IPT)

iParty Corp. engages in the sale of party goods and services through its retail stores in New England and Florida, the United States. Its stores feature approximately 20,000 products comprising paper party goods, Halloween costumes, greeting cards, and balloons, as well as merchandise, such as pinatas, tiny toys, masquerade, and Hawaiian Luau items. The company also offers party planning advice and relevant information services, as well as licenses the name iParty.com to a third party. As of December 26, 2009, it operated 26 stores in Massachusetts, 7 in Connecticut, 6 in New Hampshire, 3 in Rhode Island, 3 in Maine, 1 in Vermont, and 5 stores in Florida. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Dedham, Massachusetts.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014: Noodles & Co (NDLS.O)

Noodles & Company, incorporated on December 19, 2002, is a casual restaurant concept offering lunch and dinner. The Company offers noodle and pasta dishes, staples of many cuisines, with the goal of delivering fresh ingredients and flavors globally under one roof from Pad Thai to Mac & Cheese. The Company�� globally inspired menu includes a variety of cooked-to-order dishes, including noodles and pasta, soups, salads and sandwiches, which are served on china by its friendly team members.

As of May 28, 2013, including the 16 Company owned restaurants and one franchise restaurant opened in 2013. The Company opened 39 new company owned restaurants and six franchise restaurants. In 2012, the Company began using Your World Kitchen to describe the breadth of its offering and its customers' dining experience.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014: Montefibre(MFBI.MI)

Montefibre S.p.A. produces and sells polyster and acrylic fibres in Italy. The company?s products are used in apparel and knitwear, automotive, medical and hygienic, building and geotex, filtration, outdoor fabrics, home textiles, oeko textiles, and interlining applications. It offers its products under the Lotan, Leacril, Myoliss, and Ricem names. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Montefibre S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Orlandi S.p.A.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014: Lithium Americas Corp (LAC.TO)

Lithium Americas Corp. engages in the exploration and evaluation of lithium, potassium, and other mineral resources in South America. Its principal property includes the Cauchari‐Olaroz Lithium Project covering an area of approximately 82,500 hectares in adjacent Cauchari and Olaroz salt lakes located in Jujuy, Argentina. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Hot Low Price Stocks To Own For 2014: Soho Resources Corp.(SOH.V)

Soho Resources Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in the prolific Sierra Madre Belt of Mexico. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc ores. It principally owns a 100% interest in the Tahuehueto project, a 9,081-hectare property located in Durango State. The company also holds a 100% interest in the Jocuixtita Project that consists of 6 contiguous mining concessions covering an area of approximately 4,332 hectares situated in Sinaloa State. Soho Resources Corp. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Sales Drop Again at Walmart

Wal * Mart Supercenter Store front entrance and parking lot in Southeast USAVisions of America/UIG via Getty Images Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) says that its third-quarter profit rose 2.8 percent, but the world's largest retailer reported a sales shortfall as its low-income shoppers feel squeezed around the globe. The discounter also cut its outlook for the full year and issued fourth-quarter profit guidance that was below analysts' projections. Wal-Mart is considered an economic bellwether because the retailer accounts for nearly 10 percent of nonautomotive retail spending in the U.S. The latest results show that its American households with lower income are still struggling to juggle daily living costs with stagnant wages. Against this background, Wal-Mart is raising up its game for the holiday shopping season, which accounts for anywhere from 20 percent to 40 percent of retailers' annual revenues. Like other rivals, the discounter is kicking off the official start earlier into Thanksgiving. It also brought back its holiday layaway program and says it is sharpening prices on key holiday items even more than last year. "The retail environment, both in stores and online, remains competitive," said Mike Duke, president and CEO of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. in a statement." Wal-Mart has aggressive plans to help our customer enjoy the holiday season." Wal-Mart said that it earned $3.74 billion, or $1.14 per share in the three-month period ended Oct. 31. That compares with $3.64 billion, or $1.08 per share, in the year-ago period. Net sales rose 1.6 percent to $114.88 billion, up 1.6 percent in the year ago period. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.13 per share on net sales of $116.9 billion. U.S. Wal-Mart stores, which account for 58 percent of the company's total sales, posted the third straight quarter of declines in a key revenue figure after six consecutive quarters of increases. Revenue at stores open at least a year - considered an important measure of a retailer's performance - fell 0.3 percent at Wal-Mart's U.S. stores. Analysts were expecting the figure to be unchanged. The overall figure was down 0.1 percent, including a 1.1 percent increase at Sam's Clubs. The company expects that figure to be unchanged for Wal-Mart's U.S. stores for the fourth quarter. Overall, total sales increased 2.4 percent for Wal-Mart's U.S. business, 1.1 percent at Sam's Clubs and 0.2 percent at Wal-Mart's international business. The company said that for the fourth quarter, it expects earnings per share to be in the range of $1.50 to $1.60. It said that results would be hurt by the company's move, announced in late summer, to close 50 under-performing stores in Brazil and China. The company expects adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be $1.60 to $1.70. For the year, Wal-Mart now expects earnings per share to be from $5.01 per share to $5.11 per share. That compares with its forecast made in August of $5.10 and $5.30 per share. That was downgraded from May's forecast. Wal-Mart expects adjusted earnings per share for the full year to be $5.11 to $5.21. Analysts expected adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share for the fourth quarter and $5.19 per share for the full year, according to FactSet.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Netflix service gets a TV makeover

SAN FRANCISCO — Netflix today launched a makeover of the streaming video service, a move that comes after a succession of new entertainment titles.

The Los Gatos, Calif.-based company has redesigned its interface for better discovery of its catalog on TVs. The new look will display three large slide-show images, a teaser synopsis and one personalized detail chosen by Netflix.

"We want discovery to be richer," says Chris Jaffe, vice president of product innovation at Netflix "I knew one of my personal frustrations was I felt like today's Netflix experience didn't give me enough reasons for why I should watch this vs. that."

Netflix's old look gave viewers less detail and was dated. The streaming service's titles appeared much like rectangular images of VHS boxes, with descriptions, information on the number of episodes and ratings. The new version has taken two large Netflix-selected still images from scenes and added them to the studio art.

Netflix says the redesign to its user interface is the biggest update to its TV experience in the company's history. The company has been quietly testing it out on several hundred thousand U.S. customers, and changes have resulted in greater member engagement, according to Netflix.

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Netflix has also launched predictive and visual search. That allows for members to type in just a few characters, as done with Google searches, to get at titles. Results will be served with images from titles, as well.

"Improving the search is certainly going to help people connect with more content that they enjoy. But there is still more improvement they can make if they want to compete against the growing number of apps that people are going to find on their new game consoles, Rokus, Apple TVs and mobile devices," says Gartner analyst Brian Blau.

While it's been a few years since Netflix has remodeled its look, the Internet s! treaming service has been steadily marching out new deals for content. Last week, Netflix announced a deal with Disney's Marvel to bring original programs to the service in 2015. Netflix also announced last week that it would launch its original documentary The Short Game to its service in December as part of a larger push of first-run material from Netflix.

The service has won viewers with originals such as Emmy-winning House of Cards and Orange is the New Black in a bid to become an original programming powerhouse.

The Netflix service redesign will affect game consoles, smart TVs with apps, set-top boxes and Blu-ray players. The makeover isn't intended for mobile devices. Netflix has done back-end work that will enable new features to appear simultaneously across platforms. Also, members will be able to find and launch titles more quickly.

The new service will be available worldwide in two weeks.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Dendreon Earnings Suck, But Still Send DNDN Stock Higher

Dendreon (DNDN) stock opened slightly higher this morning, despite the fact that Dendreon earnings for Q3 rolled in even worse than expected.

DNDN stock Dendreon earningsProduct revenue for DNDN — which is to say revenue from its only product, prostate-cancer drug Provenge — fell to $68 million, down 13% from the $77.9 million generated in the same quarter a year earlier. Plus, the pros had projected DNDN sales would be $76.7 million for the quarter.

Dendreon earnings came in 44 cents per share in the red — technically an improvement on the loss of $1.04 per share of DNDN stock took in the same quarter in 2012, though a loss is still a loss. And in this case, it was still a disappointment, as analysts expected the biotech company to “only” lose 42 cents per share of DNDN stock.

The weak Dendreon earnings results for Q3, however, are the least of the company’s problems at this point — as evidenced by the fact that DNDN stock has still lost more than half of its value year-to-date despite this morning’s small bump.

The most troubling thing for DNDN stock owners is been the fact that last quarter’s deteriorating sales of Provenge simply extends a two-year trend of waning sales. That’s bad news for DNDN considering the drug was at one point being ballyhooed as a game-changer in the cancer world.

And unfortunately, Dendreon stock owners may find things are going to get worse before they get better … if they get better at all.

DNDN Stock Owners See Little to Like

DNDN stock investors have to be losing sleep over the fact that sales of Provenge peaked in the first quarter of 2012, at $82.1 million. Although it would be inaccurate to say revenue has fallen every quarter since then for Dendreon, it wouldn’t be inaccurate to say it’s fallen more often than not. DNDN sales have most definitely been in a declining sales trend since that peak.

Last quarter’s revenue of $68 million is just a few thousand dollars away from being the weakest sales DNDN has seen since the company’s product sales peaked in early 2012. That low-water mark is the top line of $67.6 million, seen in the first quarter of this year for.

Point being, there’s a broad, measurable sales downtrend in place here for DNDN. And considering Provenge has been on the market since late-2010, it’s not as if any owners of DNDN stock are willing to adopt a “let’s give it some more time” stance at this point. It’s had time to get going.

If the drug was going to be wildly marketable, this is the time when revenue would be growing exponentially — not fading.

DNDN Has a Plan, But…

Though it was inserted into Tuesday’s Dendreon earnings report as if it was new, cost-cutting measures DNDN discussed in the press release have actually been underway for a while.

For perspective, Dendreon earnings were habitually reported asquarterly losses in the area of 70 cents (or more) per share of DNDN stock between 2010 and late 2012. That has whittled that loss down to less than 50 cents per DNDN share for the past four quarters.

The point: It clearly wasn’t rising sales that led to stronger Dendreon earnings results. It was expense control doing the job, then and now. Still, the fact that DNDN felt the need to redeliver that cost-cutting message in the headline of Tuesday’s press release may underscore that initiative.

But DNDN has also been clear about the hope that it can sell itself to another drugmaker that could perhaps do more (and do so more efficiently) with Provenge and the rest of the Dendreon pipeline. (The company didn’t make mention of it within Tuesday’s Dendreon earnings announcement, though.)

The fact that DNDN explicitly wants to proverbially punt hardly instills confidence in future Dendreon earnings reports.

Even more alarming is that nobody seems interested in buying the DNDN, even though Dendreon stock is currently priced at a palatable 1.25 times its trailing twelve-month sales.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Monday, November 11, 2013

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Will Recent News Hurt Adobe?

With shares of Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) trading around $54, is ADBE an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Adobe operates as a diversified software company worldwide. It offers a line of software and services used by creative professionals, marketers, knowledge workers, application developers, enterprises, and consumers. Adobe markets and licenses its software directly to enterprise customers through its sales force and to end-users through application stores and its website. Software products and platforms are seeing an increased adoption rate worldwide by consumers and businesses who are seeing increased technology exposure. The efficiency and ease offered by Adobe products make it a viable option to many.

Adobe's recent security breach is looking much worse than what was reported last month. According to the Sophos Naked Security blog, information on 150 million Adobe customers has turned up on a website frequently used by hackers and other cyber criminals. The blog said this could end up being one of the worst security breaches in online history, according to The Verge. Adobe stands by the 38 million figure that it gave last month, while Sophos is accusing the company of inadequately encrypting its data.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Adobe stock has been on a strong move towards higher prices in the last couple of years. The stock is currently trading near all-time high prices, but it may need time to digest these levels. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Adobe is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

ADBE

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Adobe options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Adobe Options

35.97%

93%

90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Decreasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Adobe’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Adobe look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-44.83%

-66.67%

-64.86%

26.03%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-7.92%

-10.13%

-3.57%

0.11%

Earnings Reaction

9.22%

5.58%

4.19%

5.7%

Adobe has seen decreasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets haven’t been too pleased with Adobe’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Adobe stock done relative to its peers, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), and sector?

Adobe

Apple

Microsoft

Oracle

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

44.21%

-2.30%

40.62%

2.70%

22.30%

Adobe has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Adobe provides valuable software products and services to a wide range of companies and consumers operating in diversified industries worldwide. The company is looking much worse than what was reported last month. The stock has been trending higher in recent years and is currently trading near all-time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been decreasing, leaving investors unhappy about the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Adobe has been a year-to-date performance leader. WAIT AND SEE what Adobe does next.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Obama Lobs College Affordability Bomb as Congress Gears Up for Budget Talks

President Barack Obama hit the road last week with a two-day bus tour of New York and Pennsylvania to promote his new college affordability plan as he gears up to face the next round in the U.S. budget battle when Congress convenes for its new legislative session starting Sept. 9.

Over the back-to-school weeks in late August and September, Obama is targeting rising college costs as part of a series of speeches that seek “a better bargain for the middle class” in terms of education, jobs, housing and health care. Not surprisingly, the speeches blame Republican lawmakers for hurting the middle classes with a growing U.S. wealth gap — and Republicans, for their part, have responded by calling Obama off the mark.

President Barack Obama (Photo: AP)“At a time when a higher education has never been more important or more expensive, too many students are facing a choice that they should never have to make,” Obama said in his kickoff speech on college tuition at the University of Buffalo on Thursday. “Either they say no to college and pay the price for not getting a degree — and that's a price that lasts a lifetime — or you do what it takes to go to college, but then you run the risk that you won’t be able to pay it off because you've got so much debt.”

Obama rightly stated that college has never been more expensive, stating that over the past three decades, the average tuition at a public four-year college has gone up by more than 250% while a typical family's income has only gone up 16%. The average student today will graduate with more than $26,000 in debt, he said.

Obama’s plan would rate colleges before the 2015 school year based on measures such as tuition, graduation rates, debt and earnings of graduates and the percentage of lower-income students who attend, according to The New York Times. “The ratings would compare colleges against their peer institutions. If the plan can win congressional approval, the idea is to base federal financial aid to students attending the colleges partly on those rankings,” The Times reported.

At the same time, the president took a dig at his opponents in Congress, accusing them of throwing up obstacles to U.S. economic recovery and blocking the attempts of average Americans who are trying to keep up with the rising cost of living.

“Rather than keeping focus on a growing economy that creates good middle-class jobs, we’ve seen a faction of Republicans in Congress suggest that maybe America shouldn’t pay its bills that have already been run up, that we shut down government if they can’t shut down Obamacare.”

After its five-week recess, Congress on Sept. 9 will renew talks on three financial issues: 1) a stopgap measure to fund the government in the first few months of the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1; 2) raising the government’s $16.7 trillion debt limit; and 3) replacing about $1 trillion in the across-the-board spending cuts of sequestration.

Already, Obama’s college plan has received much press and commentary nationwide, not all of it good.

Republicans on Capitol Hill were quick to criticize, The Washington Post said, with Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the top Republican on the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, calling the proposal a form of government overreach and suggesting a state-by-state approach would be preferable.

“Washington needs to be careful about taking a good idea for one state and forcing all 6,000 institutions of higher education to do the exact same thing, turning Washington into a sort of national school board for our colleges and universities,” Alexander said.

A story in The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, estimated that a debt forgiveness part of the Obama plan would cost the government $6 billion over a decade. And in a Journal weekend interview, Richard Vedder, Ohio University’s director of the Center for College Affordability and Productivity, says the Obama plan doesn’t deal with the fundamental problem of government subsidies. Vedder places blame for skyrocketing tuition on the Higher Education Act of 1965, a Great Society program that created federal scholarships and low-interest loans, saying they have encouraged colleges to splurge on cushy classes and lush amenities.

Also paying close attention to the viability of Obama’s plan are groups that focus on helping students and their parents save for college.

Joseph Hurley, founder of SavingforCollege.com, which analyses 529 college savings programs, said he applauds any plan to tie financial aid funding to student outcomes, but he wonders whether the Obama plan would be bogged down by red tape or politicking.

“Why should institutions that are not doing a good job receive the same federal resources as those institutions that are doing a good job?,” Hurley wrote in an email. “However, creating the ranking system proposed by the president will become very unwieldy and most likely will become watered down in the design and implementation process. The colleges will probably be hiring special consultants to find ways to improve their rankings under the system, without necessarily improving their educational processes, much as they hire enrollment consultants now.”

Eleanor Blayney, consumer advocate for the CFP Board, said Obama’s plan to use a competitive marketplace among colleges and universities to determine which get the most federal funding for student loans “makes at least conceptual sense,” though the devil is in the details and logistics of a rating system.

“What would not make sense, in my judgment, is a system that allows the ‘Pay as You Earn’ loan repayment plan, without corresponding reduction in tuition costs,” Blayney wrote in an email. “The ‘Pay as You Earn’ plan allows a much longer payback period than do the standard student loans: 25 years versus 10 years.  The problem with this is that borrowers can still find themselves paying these loans back well into their forties, even fifties, when there may be a lot of other financial demands that they should be addressing. The higher the amount borrowed (as a result of uncontrolled tuition amounts), the more of the debt burden shifted to later years.”

Read 8 Back-to-School Planning Tips for Advisors (and Their Clients) at ThinkAdvisor.

Friday, November 8, 2013

Friday Closing Bell: Markets Retrace Yesterday’s Losses

November 8, 2013: U.S. markets opened slightly higher Friday morning after the monthly report on non-farm payrolls showed a larger-than-expected gain. The preliminary report on November consumer sentiment came in low pushing share prices down shortly after markets opened. It appears that investors decided to buy the dip today, though, retracing much of yesterday's loss. The dollar strengthened again today, and the 10-year Treasury yield zoomed higher.

European markets closed mixed today while Latin American and Asian markets again closed lower.

Monday's calendar includes speeches by Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and the following scheduled data releases and events (all times Eastern):

10:00 a.m. – Factory orders 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month bill auctions

Top Stocks To Buy Right Now

Here are the closing bell levels for Friday:

S&P500 1770.60 (+23.45; +1.34%) DJIA 15761.78 (+167.80; +1.08%) NASDAQ 3919.23 (+61.90; +1.60%) 10YR TNOTE 2.751% (-1.21875) Gold $1,284.60 (-23.90; -1.8%) and down 2.2% for the week WTI Crude oil $94.60 (+0.40; +0.4%) and unchanged for the week Euro/Dollar: 1.3364 (-0.0055; -0.41%)

Big Earnings Movers: The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is up 2.1% at $68.58 on a good showing for its films but not so much for its TV programming. Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP) is up 1.8% at $4.85 after offering a weakish outlook. Revolution Lighting Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: RVLT) is up 21.5% at $3.28 after a strong report and reaffirmed solid outlook.

Stocks on the Move: Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) is down 7.3% at $41.64 on its second day of trading and word is that some hedge funds and traders are looking to borrow shares. Santarus Inc. (NASDAQ: SNTS) is up 37.6% at $31.95 after agreeing late Thursday night to an acquisition by Salix Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SLXP) for $2.6 billion in cash.

In all, 109 NYSE stocks put up new 52-week highs today, while 58 stocks posted new lows.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Mixed; Wendy's Adjusted Profit Beats Estimates

Following the market opening Thursday, the Dow traded up 0.16 percent to 15,771.96 while the NASDAQ declined 0.25 percent to 3,922.25. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.01 percent to 1,770.60.

Top Headline
The Wendy's Co (NASDAQ: WEN) reported better-than-expected third-quarter adjusted earnings.

Wendy's posted a quarterly loss of $1.9 million, or $0.00 per share, versus a year-ago loss of $26.2 million, or $0.07 per share. Its adjusted earnings per share climbed to $0.08 from $0.02.

Its revenue climbed to $640.8 million from $636.3 million. However, analysts were projecting earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $640 million. Wendy's lifted its full-year earnings view to $0.25 per share.

Equities Trading UP
HomeAway (NASDAQ: AWAY) shot up 18.62 percent to $34.51 after the company reported a 63 percent rise in its Q3 profit. Raymond James upgraded the stock from Outperform to Strong Buy.

Shares of American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) got a boost, shooting up 8.33 percent to $15.87 after the company updated its Q3 earnings forecast. Brean Capital upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

RDA Microelectronics (NASDAQ: RDA) was also up, gaining 11.12 percent to $17.28 after the company announced the receipt of $18.00/ADS acquisition proposal from Tsinghua Unigroup.

Equities Trading DOWN
Shares of Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NYSE: NSM) were down 17.33 percent to $40.69 after the company reported Q3 results. Stonegate Mortgage announced its plans to acquire Nationstar's wholesale lending channel.

Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFM) shares tumbled 9.76 percent to $58.18 after the company reported downbeat fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and lowered its FY14 forecast.

The Wendy's Company (NASDAQ: WEN) was down, falling 9.57 percent to $8.22 on Q3 results.

Commodities
In commodity news, oil traded down 0.57 percent to $94.26, while gold traded down 0.76 percent to $1,307.80.

Silver traded down 0.79 percent Thursday to $21.60, while copper rose 0.08 percent to $3.24.

Eurozone
European shares were higher today. The Spanish Ibex Index rose 0.77 percent, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index climbed 0.21 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX gained 1.24 percent and the French CAC 40 surged 0.99 percent while U.K. shares rose 0.14 percent.

Economics
US jobless claims declined by 9,000 to 336,000 in the week ending November 2. However, economists were projecting claims to drop to 335,000.

The US economy expanded by 2.8 percent in the third quarter. However, economists were expecting a 2.3 percent growth.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to minus 37.9 in the week ending November 3, versus minus 37.6.

The Treasury is set to auction 3-and 6-month bills.

Data on consumer credit for September will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET, while money supply data will be released at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Eurozone Futures Forex Global Econ #s Economics Hot Intraday Update Markets Movers Tech

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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